Investment community bets big on equities in CFA Society India annual forecast survey

WED Bureau
New Delhi

CFA Society India hosted its 9th Annual Forecast Event FY2018 at the BSE International Convention Hall, Bombay Stock Exchange, Mumbai on 31st March 2017.

The annual investment industry event featured a power-packed panel discussion on ‘What FY2018 holds for the economy and the outlook for major asset classes’. Panelists included Sankaran Naren, Executive Director and Chief Investment Officer, ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd; Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund, Siddhartha Sanyal, Director and Chief Economist, India, Barclays Bank PLC, Pratik Gupta, Managing Director, Deutsche Bank; and Prasun Gajri, Chief Investment Officer, HDFC Standard Life Insurance.

“The Annual Forecast is the marquee event for the investment community in India.
The panelists gave a robust forecast and expect domestic savings flow into financial assets to continue. India is well placed on macros such as inflation, fiscal and current account deficit, and the government is rightly working on the supply side constraints. The investment community is significantly bullish on equities for FY2018. Almost 80% of survey respondents believe that equity will be the best asset class with mean returns between 10-15%,” said Jayesh Gandhi, CFA, President, CFA Society India.

FY18 expectations

77% expect equity to be best performing asset class.

Sensex to see single digit growth at 30-32k.

28% expect GDP growth to be at 7-7.5%.

More than 85% expect CPI to be less than 5.5%.

75% expect bond yields to be less than 7%.

Crude: 45% expect it to settle at USD 50-60 per barrel.

Gold: 35% expect it to settle at USD 1100-1200 per ounce.

Rupee: Maximum respondents expect 66-68 INR/USD exchange rate.
Sensex earnings growth is expected at 10-15%.

Critical driver of equities are Government policy and reforms. For GDP, key drivers will be government policy and global geopolitical situation.
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